Job Market Paper
Constraint on the Global Arms Supply and Implications for Modern Conflicts
Abstract
Scholars have long studied the rationality of warfare, but not the practicality of it. In this paper, I argue that the constraint on the global arms supply changes the modern international security environment, leading to a rise in asymmetrical conflicts. The paper begins with a theoretical argument on the unique security environment states face today created by the oligopolistic nature of the global defense industry, highlighting the challenges to sustain a stable flow of arms supply necessary for militarized conflicts. These conditions, given existing grievances between states, have skewed observable conflicts towards wars between asymmetrical states. Moreover, I develop a new measure of military capability using a combination of k-means clustering and principal component analysis with military arsenal data. I demonstrate that the PCA-MD measure is more successful at capturing the shifting distribution of military power between dyads than previous estimates in the Post WWII era. The results of statistical analysis show that militaries in different strength clusters are more likely to be engaged in conflict during this period..
Working Papers
Abstract
Why do foreign entities lobby in the U.S.? Understanding lobbying behaviors of foreign actors and their impact on domestic and international politics is crucial towards addressing theoretical and empirical gaps across several social science disciplines. However, the study of foreign lobbying has been constrained by data limitations that impeded the scope and breadth of research opportunities for scholars. This paper introduces a foreign lobbying panel dataset based on multiple data sources from the Foreign Agent Registration Act of 1938 database from 2003 to 2021. The dataset provides researchers with tools to analyze foreign lobbying behavior at the lobbyist level, foreign entity level, and lobbying activity level. Leveraging various features of the dataset, I identify lobbying patterns from various types of foreign actors, examine their policy goals, and assess the impact of these lobbying efforts. This dataset contributes to resolving longstanding research debates on the extent of political influence exerted by foreign actors and uncovers new research opportunities for future researchers in the field.
Measuring Military Capability: Introducing an Integrated Dimensional Clustering Approach
Abstract
How should military capability be defined? Past theories on power perception and international order offer contradicting analysis, empirical validity, and generalization for the same observations. This paper provides a novel two-dimensional framework for understanding military capabilities: strength and growth. I theorize that states on similar strength levels tend to cooperate with each other, while states on similar growth levels will engage in more conflict. Furthermore, I propose a new measurement of military capability on these two dimensions using k-means clustering machine learning model and principal component analysis. Lastly, I employ logit regression to demonstrate that states in the same growth cluster are more likely to engage in conflict while states in the same strength cluster experience the opposite.
The Unfolding Character of Balancing in International Relations: The Case of Middle Powers Responding to China’s Rise (with Arthur Stein)
Abstract
This paper criticizes the conventional balance-of-power argument of a dichotomy between balancing and bandwagoning in response to adverse shifts in the balance. It delineates the assumptions underlying balancing arguments and problems associated with them. It argues that bandwagoning and balancing constitute ends of a continuum of state responses, and that each also consists of multiple possibilities. And it argues that there is a process by which rising powers manifest threat. Similarly, there is a historical unfolding process in state responses to growing threats. The paper draws on a variety of data sources to demonstrate the delayed and limited military assertiveness of China, and the range of responses by the regional powers threatened by China’s maritime claims. China’s assertiveness has both brought together the spokes in the US security structure in Asia, but has also led to hedging by those without allies.