Job Market Paper
The Global Arms Supply Constraint and Its Implications for Modern Conflicts
Abstract
Modern International Relations theories of conflict largely relies on rationality-based arguments to explain the variance in interstate armed conflict. In this paper, I introduce an alternate logic, that of a global arms production constraint, to explain why conflicts between states of disparate military strengths are more likely to engage in militarized conflict in the post-World War II era. I argue that due to the increased complexity and specialization of production, the manufacture and supply of modern arms globally is highly concentrated and constrained. This creates a unique security environment where the difficulty in sustaining arms supply necessary for militarized conflict leads states to fight shorter conflicts with predictable outcomes, so as to minimize their need for arms. My results show that in the post-WWII period, states of disparate military strengths are 36.8% more likely to engage in militarized conflict. This paper also makes a methodological contribution by introducing a new measurement of military strength using a two-step Principal Component Analysis – Manhattan Distance (PCA-MD) technique and k-Means Clustering on comprehensive arsenal data from 1970 – 2014 to better reflect the effectiveness of combined arms capabilities in modern warfare. Compared to existing measures of military strength, this measurement is demonstrated to be more robust and accurate in reflecting modern military capabilities.
Working Papers
Abstract
Why do foreign entities lobby in the U.S.? Understanding lobbying behaviors of foreign actors and their impact on domestic and international politics is crucial towards addressing theoretical and empirical gaps across several social science disciplines. However, the study of foreign lobbying has been constrained by data limitations that impeded the scope and breadth of research opportunities for scholars. This paper introduces a foreign lobbying panel dataset based on multiple data sources from the Foreign Agent Registration Act of 1938 database from 2003 to 2021. The dataset provides researchers with tools to analyze foreign lobbying behavior at the lobbyist level, foreign entity level, and lobbying activity level. Leveraging various features of the dataset, I identify lobbying patterns from various types of foreign actors, examine their policy goals, and assess the impact of these lobbying efforts. This dataset contributes to resolving longstanding research debates on the extent of political influence exerted by foreign actors and uncovers new research opportunities for future researchers in the field.
Measuring Military Capability: Introducing an Integrated Dimensional Clustering Approach
Abstract
How should military capability be defined? Past theories on power perception and international order offer contradicting analysis, empirical validity, and generalization for the same observations. This paper provides a novel two-dimensional framework for understanding military capabilities: strength and growth. I theorize that states on similar strength levels tend to cooperate with each other, while states on similar growth levels will engage in more conflict. Furthermore, I propose a new measurement of military capability on these two dimensions using k-means clustering machine learning model and principal component analysis. Lastly, I employ logit regression to demonstrate that states in the same growth cluster are more likely to engage in conflict while states in the same strength cluster experience the opposite.
The Unfolding Character of Balancing in International Relations: The Case of Middle Powers Responding to China’s Rise (with Arthur Stein)
Abstract
This paper criticizes the conventional balance-of-power argument of a dichotomy between balancing and bandwagoning in response to adverse shifts in the balance. It delineates the assumptions underlying balancing arguments and problems associated with them. It argues that bandwagoning and balancing constitute ends of a continuum of state responses, and that each also consists of multiple possibilities. And it argues that there is a process by which rising powers manifest threat. Similarly, there is a historical unfolding process in state responses to growing threats. The paper draws on a variety of data sources to demonstrate the delayed and limited military assertiveness of China, and the range of responses by the regional powers threatened by China’s maritime claims. China’s assertiveness has both brought together the spokes in the US security structure in Asia, but has also led to hedging by those without allies.